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In Moscow’s Shadows Read on blog or Reader How the Kremlin spins Yermak’s resignation
Yesterday’s resignation of Andrii Yermak, Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, strong right hand and eminence grise, is clearly a seismic shock to Ukrainian politics. In many ways especially as Zelensky was so often the ‘super foreign minister’ jetting from one foreign capital to the next to beg, cajole, encourage and browbeat allies to maintain their support, he was the man running much of the country, or at least managing its politics.
Whether one regards this as a sign of the preponderance of corruption in Ukraine (as Yermak resigned as NABU, the independent anti-corruption agency, was searching his apartment in connection with a high-profile investigation), or as evidence precisely that the country is willing to fight corruption even at the top of the system, it has at once delighted the Russian state but also provided something of a dilemma. How to report this news in such a way as to blacken Ukraine, manage hopes that this means peace, and also not to encourage the inevitable comparisons in the minds of Russian readers who will be painfully aware of the embezzlement at the top of their own state and the absence of some home-grown analogue of NABU?
The response was epitomised, I felt, in Zelenskyy signed a decree dismissing Yermak. But what does this really mean? Yermak resigns: Will this impact Ukrainian politics?, the main article on the subject in the government newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta. What follows is an excerpted translation of the article, with my own commentary:
The all-powerful head of the Ukrainian president’s office, Andrii Yermak, has resigned, as announced by his friend Zelensky in an address to the nation. The signed resignation decree has already been published.
This morning, after a series of clear warnings, the NABU and SAP finally reached Andrii Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office. A search was conducted at the official apartment of the man named ‘Ali Baba’ in the elite corruption case.
Ali Baba was reportedly the codename used for Yermak in taped conversations amongst the conspirators involved in the scam. (SAP, by the way, is another independent anti-corruption watchdog)
However, anti-corruption authorities have not yet carried out the key procedural action capable of upending Ukraine’s domestic politics—filing charges against Yermak. And perhaps this will never happen.
… Andrii Borisovich [Yermak], also known as ‘Alla Borisovna’ by his subordinates, is anything but a fool in the everyday sense, and as a thief, he is a highly professional.
Let us reiterate, the mere fact of a search of Yermak’s home today, especially after his resignation, poses no threat, and is no more than the usual intra-elite battles familiar to ordinary Ukrainians since independence. The filing of charges would mean a trial, the selection of a preventive measure, the likely release on bail, disgrace, flight, and the inevitable loss of all the reins of power that Yermak zealously and painstakingly gathered into his own hands for over five years. This would constitute a full-fledged elite coup, turning Zelensky into a figurehead with no electoral prospects.
Yermak’s voluntary resignation without further charges is already an opportunity to continue influencing the proceedings from behind the scenes. Few doubt today that the connection between these two scoundrels will continue after their salutary resignation.
So, the prevailing line is that Yermak may have had to step down, probably as the price for avoiding a prosecution, the framework of a corrupt cabal running Ukraine is still in place, and Yermak will continue to be the ‘Grey Cardinal’ dominating it from behind the scenes. More to the point, the ‘two scoundrels’ line tries to connect Zelensky with the corruption, even if so far no evidence at all of such a link has emerged.
In this regard, Zelensky’s five-minute address to the nation regarding Yermak’s departure is particularly interesting. First, he repeated the word “pressure” several times in different places, as if implying that his friend’s resignation was forced and, in his view, unfair. The pressure, as the context suggests, was exerted by Americans, who were not directly named… Second, he made it clear that he still relies on Europe to achieve a ‘just peace,’ meaning the continuation of the war.
This is in many ways an encapsulation of two central talking points from the Kremlin:
1. NABU is essentially an instrument of the West, primarily the USA. It was used to target Yermak as Washington brings down the hammer on Zelensky, warning him to be good and accept whatever peace deal Trump hashes out with Putin. So not only can Russians be reassured that there is some hope of a victorious end to the war, but they are also encouraged to believe that even apparently independent agencies fighting corruption in Ukraine are no more than political contract killers working for foreigners. So, the subliminal message runs, don’t be disappointed that the same doesn’t happen in Russia.
2. The Europeans are the main obstacles to peace.
…Stripping away the emotional fluff about ‘unity’ and ‘struggle,’ which makes up a third of the address, Zelensky told Ukrainians that nothing terrible had happened and sternly urged them to refrain from insinuations. He also hinted to the opposition in the Rada that, although their demand for the resignation of their dear friend had been fulfilled, things wouldn’t get any easier for the deputies – they would vote as instructed and, for starters, practice on the budget drawn up by Yermak…
In other words, while there is hope, readers ought not to get carried away. Russia and the US may be trying to find a way to end the war, but the illegitimate (as far as the Kremlin is concerned) president Zelensky, backed or pushed by the nefarious Europeans, is going to try and maintain business as usual, Yermakism without Yermak, and that means maintaining a tight grip on the political elite. In short
1. Yes, there is hope of peace… but only limited, and if it fails, it will be Zelensky and the European who are at fault. That’s true in a way, in that the most likely outcome is still a ‘deal’ that Kyiv cannot accept.
2. Ukraine is a corrupt snakepit (elsewhere, parallels are sometimes made with 90s Russia, which remains the Putinist cautionary tale), far worse than Russia. OK, Ukraine is no paragon, but the idea that NABU and SAP are just foreign tools is deeply questionable. One must recognise that there is a very real struggle going on genuinely to fight endemic corruption.
3. Democracy, anti-corruption, etc, as experienced in Ukraine – as in the West – are pretty facades, shielding the naked power struggles between individuals and factions, and the interference of foreign powers. Russia should be glad it is free of such hypocrisies! I don’t think I need to say what I think about this rationalisation of the Putin state!
I almost feel I should respect the propagandists’ capacities to turn the facts on the ground to effectively to their cause.
