Mark Galeotti posted: ” “Washington’s dove of peace. Although they are sneakily disguising it, they cannot hide its dirty gut!” Once, Russian sites such as InoSMI would run accurate translations of Western articles, but with acid little commentaries or new titles. These days” In Moscow’s Shadows
“Washington’s dove of peace. Although they are sneakily disguising it, they cannot hide its dirty gut!”
Once, Russian sites such as InoSMI would run accurate translations of Western articles, but with acid little commentaries or new titles. These days, it is often the case that Russian news outlets will instead offer up doctored versions, slanted to reassure Russians that the West is divided and near collapse and its people unhappy with policy over Russia and Ukraine (I talk a little more about this in my latest podcast).
They seem to pay a lot of attention to the Spectator (as they should), both the magazine and its online blog, and not only do the Kremlin/Kremlophile trolls flock to its comment pages, but its articles often get this treatment. My most recent piece, on the Black Sea, seems to have attracted particular attention (and PolitRossiya, apparently unaware that UCL is not UCLA, describes me as an emeritus professor at the University of California), but an especially egregious example came in the increasingly nationalist ‘news agency’ Krasnaya Vesna (‘Red Spring’).
The essence of my article was that while we focus on the land war in Ukraine, there is also a naval dimension, and this has true global significance, as evident through the Russians’ capacity to strange Ukrainian grain exports by sea, which drove up prices worldwide. Although Crimea’s political future is a complex issue, so long as the peninsula is both Russian-controlled and heavily militarised, then it can disrupt activities in the Black Sea. That’s the nutshell version – do feel free to read the full version, as well as the Council on Geostrategy report I highlight.
So, what did Krasnaya Vesna make of this? This is their piece (run through Google Translate, which generally does a decent job with Russian), in italics, with a few annotations of my own:
Spectator: naval bases in Crimea make Russia stronger than NATO in the Black Sea
OK, just for the record, this is not what I say…
Naval bases in Crimea make Russia stronger than NATO in the Black Sea. This point of view was expressed by Spectator columnist Mark Galeotti on May 14, the newspaper writes.
“As long as Russian forces are deployed in Crimea, the Black Sea will obey the will of Moscow – to threaten and suppress,” Galeotti believes.
According to him, “what is happening now in the Black Sea does not remain in the sea, and the waves of what happened are spreading all over the globe. ”
Galeotti cited examples where NATO air forces failed in a collision with Russian fighters.
Well, I talk of the civilian Polish plane almost forced into the sea by a Russian jet, the American drone which was crashed, and the British reconnaissance plane that a Russian fighter accidentally shot at… only for the missile fortunately to malfunction
In his opinion, NATO has long considered the Black Sea region a front line with Russia.
“And Crimea is both a platform for Russian strikes and a target for retaliatory Ukrainian air and sea attacks,” the observer emphasizes.
“It is Crimea that becomes the reason that the forces of the NATO countries arrange provocations here near the Russian borders. The purpose of these provocations is to challenge the influence of the Kremlin in the waters of the sea, which the West seeks to control ,” Galeotti concludes.
This is simply made up. I’ve looked carefully at my text to see if there is anything that could innocently or wilfully be read as this, and I find nothing. All there is, is a reference to Western FONOPs — Freedom of Navigation operations — in international waters. Like, say, the spy ship Viktor Leonov off the US coast. Or the missile frigate Admiral Gorshkov in the North Sea. Both this year; both Russian; both unhindered; but apparently neither a ‘provocation’.
Of course, disinformation is a tool of war as old as history, but this is not directed externally. It’s in Russian, for a Russian audience. This, alas, is the new line, trying desperately – including relying on outright fabrication – to persuade Russians that the evil West is out to get them. How long before we see the old-fashioned clumsy Soviet propaganda cartoons like the one above, with fanged, fat American soldiers and their bloodthirsty top-hatted or cigar-smoking capitalist masters?
Mark Galeotti posted: ” This is a summary of the discussion at the latest of the current series of online Strategic Competition Seminar Series (SCSS) webinars held on 17 January 2023 by the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies (GCMC) in Garmisch-Partenkir”
This is a summary of the discussion at the latest of the current series of online Strategic Competition Seminar Series (SCSS) webinars held on 17 January 2023 by the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies (GCMC) in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. The summary reflects the overall tenor of the discussion, and no specific element necessarily should be presumed to be the view of either of the participants.Please note that Mark Galeotti is only hosting these useful summaries and can claim no credit for compiling them.
Introduction
This year our Strategic Competition Seminar Series (FY23 SCSS) activities focus on the theme of alternative Ukrainian future trajectories and the implications these may have for Russia and the West.SCSS#3 concluded by noting that “While the conflict is “mutually hurting”, a stalemate is not in evidence, far less exhaustion. Winter has not led to a strategic impasse. Fears of a grey-zone protracted inconclusive conflict characterized by operational exhaustion, war fatigue and the rise of a “give peace a chance” camp in Europe are not realized. Paradoxically, a high intensity fluid deadlock is in balance at break-point.” While there may be no prospect of peace talks this winter between Russia and Ukraine, there are talks about talks and talks about avoiding escalation. Looking out over 2023, how might evolving structural factors shape the interests that modify the decision-making calculus of the parties directly and indirectly involved in the armed conflict? What constitutes “victory”?
Ukrainian Victory
In an interview with the Economist on 3 December 2022, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Gen Valery Zaluzhny argued that Ukraine has the troops but lacks military equipment and needed 300 tanks, 600-700 infantry fighting vehicles and 500 howitzers. Ukraine believes that the offensive mobility inherent in armored brigades will allow it to seize the initiative and create a viable and necessary military precondition for negotiation leading to war termination on its terms – the withdrawal of Russian troops from “all captured territories”. The upcoming 20 January 2023 Ramstein military assistance coordination meeting of allied defense ministers will highlight the extent to which western partners will supply equipment. Without further Ukrainian military advances, President Volodymyr Zelensky lacks a mandate to negotiate a peace deal.
In addition to this military track, President Zelensky offered a 10-Point Peace Plan and issued a call for a Ukrainian Peace Formula Summit, a proposal most recently presented by First Lady Olena Zelenska at the World Economic Forum in Davos on 17 January 2023. Kyiv insists that justice is a central concern, not a negotiating tactic. It reflects a historically-driven sense of victimhood under tsarist imperial and then Soviet control and the realities of forced Russification and the Holodomor and the ongoing war since 2014. Justice is also integral to the Ukraine’s International Law-based approach to war. On 17 January 2023 Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on the European Parliament to support setting up a special tribunal to hold Russia’s political and military leadership accountable for war crimes against Ukraine. Ukraine also seeks to establish a mechanism for compensatory reparations for damage Russia has inflicted on Ukraine and calls into question the legality of Russia’s status as an UN P5 member. Punishing the perpetrator aims also to deter future aggression. Ukraine is now trying to build support globally for this approach.
Russia has lost 50% of the territory it had seized and occupied in the first 6 weeks of the war. Although Ukraine cities are dark and children are less visible, Ukraine’s railways still run, its banking system operates, local produce is sold in the streets and macro-economic stability holds. Ukraine appears resilient and its people resolute. There is a perception in Ukraine that western assistance through 2022 gave Ukraine enough materiel, economic and diplomatic support to resist Russian aggression but not enough to ensure Russia’s defeat and to make Ukraine safer and more secure. This approach must change in 2023. Arguably, Ukraine’s political culture is being transformed – not least through the activities of its anti-corruption agencies and support for a “rule of law” society – but the war and such change is necessary if Ukraine is to remain Ukraine (“plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose”). In 2022, the High Anti-Corruption Court transferred more than 1.22 billion UAH of pledges and seized assets to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Indeed, Western military assistance (equipment, training, doctrine) accelerates Ukraine’s move to a 21st century NATO interoperable military, even as Russia’s military descends to its late Soviet variant.
When examining debates in Ukraine around a preferred end state, we see a striking degree of unity amongst internal actors, in terms of message discipline and coherence. Slight differences in emphasis can be noted when surveying a range of internal actors, reflecting both an expectation of victory and a desire to see that victory aligned with their institutional interests and aspirations. Gen Zaluzhny and Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s second most senior soldier and C-in-C of its army, differ on the issue of the duration of the war, which is linked to war aims. Gen Zaluzhny points out that for Crimea to be militarily “in play”, Ukrainian forces would first have to advance around 100km into Russian lines to take Melitopol.
For the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), this is a “good war,” not least because it has pushed the overdue question of reform off the agenda, and their support for maximalist goals may in part reflect their interest in a longer war. This puts internal reform efforts on hold for the duration, an outcome that may align with the interests of mid-ranking Cols and LtCols in that service. By contrast, Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs, headed by Denys Monastyrsky (who tragically died in a helicopter accident 18 January 2023), will at the point of war termination be responsible for the reintegration of occupied territories and will need to deploy the Police, National Guard, State Emergency Services, Border Guard and State Migration service (customs service) to LNR, DNR and Crimea. A quicker war termination may align with less territory to reintegrate which in turn allows the Ministry to initiate reform efforts sooner.
For Ukraine, a minimally acceptable startingpoint for negotiation would be for Russia to be a return to the status quo ante 24 February 2022, with the territories seized in 2014 (DNR, LNR and Crimea) all on the table. Such an outcome is dependent on western military assistance. More controversially, Ukrainian “end state” discussions reflect on the need for a reformation of Russian political order to enable a “New Russia” to emerge. Ukraine recognizes that Putin’s world view is informed by the belief that the West is “coming” for him and is shaped by imperialist sphere of influence notions. Putin may strike a deal at some stage for survival, but he will not change his beliefs. Defeating Russia, though, might force Russia to deal with its imperial past. Discussions around the contours of a “New Russia” include the notion of Russia as a “Parliamentary Republic” (Khodokovsky) or even confederation, cuts in energy revenues that fuel the war and a decrease in its nuclear arsenal to mitigate the risks of further aggression. Nonetheless, it is questionable how far Ukraine and the West may be able to reshape Russia in any meaningful way.
Russian “Victory”
President Putin’s war aims have remained constant and continue to center on the destruction of Ukraine as an independent state capable of joining the EU or NATO, the breaking of the will of its people to resist and the will of the West to support it. As SCSS#3 noted: “Russia seems to believe that its aerial campaign against Ukraine combined with declining support from the West will eventually lead to talks on its terms, involving territorial concessions by Kyiv and the acceptance of constraints on a future Ukrainian state’s foreign, defense and domestic politics. Broadly speaking, Russia sees time on its side and predicts that in 2023 it will be much harder to sustain financial support to Ukraine. Eventually, Ukraine will crack.”
Actual means to achieve Russian ends include: salami-slicing Ukrainian territory (Soledar and Bakhmut the current focus); the use of missile strikes to target Ukraine’s economy and cause population displacement and refugees; and, ultimately, forcefully assimilating Ukrainians into Putin’s artificial “one Russian people” construct. Putin places Russia on a war footing through mobilization of reservists, the Russian economy and its society. ‘Wartime Putinism’ seeks to impose talks on Ukraine on Russia’s own terms. In Russia more generally, publicly broadcast notions of victory are maximalist and detached from reality. Real discussions center on what can be salvaged by this debacle and how defeat can be mitigated.
On 11 January 2023 Gen Sergey Surovikin was replaced as single unified commander of the Russia Group of Forces for the Special Military Operation (SVO) in Ukraine, becoming one of three deputies to Chief of the General Staff (CGS) Valery Gerasimov, who as well as SVO commander retained his CGS duties (suggesting a demotion for both). Surovikin is considered to have played a bad hand well, overseeing the “regrouping” of Russian forces from Kherson to more defensible lines on the left bank of the Dnipro, stabilizing the ‘Luhansk front’ and addressing logistical and mobilization issues.
The Russian MoD and state-controlled media explained Gerasimov’s appointment as heralding a shift from “defensive” (“positional warfare”) to “offensive”, suggesting that the SVO could now be expanded to include large-scale long-term “war”. Implied in the appointment is a Russian Spring Offensive. Realistically, by spring Gerasimov cannot address the systemic challenges that bedevil Russian military operations, including a largely incompetent officer corps, endemic corruption which emanates from the Kremlin, logistical, subordination and coordination issues.
In theory the organizational prowess and vision of Gerasimov combined with the unsentimental battlefield brutality of Surovikin makes for a winning combination. In practice Gerasimov may be able to use his role as the CGS to flex his political strength, given his centrality to the Putin regime, by implementing controlled escalation. Non-strategic nuclear weapon escalation is very unlikely, unless Putin panics. Gerasimov’s escalatory options are ultimately political decisions. First, Belarus or the ‘northern front’ can be brought into play. Lukashenka currently gives all support – munitions, training, the use of Belarusian territory as a launch pad – short of committing his maximum of 9000 deployable troops into Ukraine (of the 48,000 in the Belarusian armed forces), aware that Belarusian society and its military would object. Second, more Russian reserves could be mobilized and/or Gerasimov could prioritize the deployment of better trained and equipped Russian conscripts over its “mobiks”, despite the reluctance of Russian society to sacrifice these “wards of the state”.
Another explanation offered for Gerasimov’s appointment is the need for Putin to restore a factional power balance and rests on the notion that a virtual open conflict is ongoing between the Defense Ministry, top political figures and mercenary group commanders. In a regime where the presidency is the strongest institution presided over by a president-for-life, with no formal checks-and-balances, rule of law and accountability, factional infighting is driven by power (access to Putin) which in turn results in increased federal funding and the advantageous redistribution of property and profits. Gerasimov’s appointment could signify Putin’s desire to restore the primacy of MoD/GS authority over the “mercenary generals”. This in turn points to another less visible reality: Russia’s war in Ukraine is driven not by the logic of victory but of avoiding blame and responsibility for defeat. If this explanation has purchase, then might we not expect positive reporting of Wagner PMC in the Russian media to drop off and certainly Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner PMC’s leader, to desist from openly attacking the Shoigu and the GS. Time will tell with regards to the latter, but the Russian media from 15 January resumed positive reporting of Wagner’s effort in Ukraine. Prigozhin plays a necessary Zhirinovsky-jester role in the Russian psycho-drama – a man without allies or a firm institutional basis is only able to secure Putin’s patronage only to the extent that he is military relevant. Hence the totemic importance of being seen to storm Bakhmut.
For Putin, if not for Russian ‘technocrats’ (where mere survival constitutes victory), the appearance of being “victorious” (“Grand Victory”) against the West matters perhaps even more than tactical “victory” on the battlefield in Ukraine. There are minimum preconditions though that any Russian negotiated victory must meet if Putin is to justify the costs of the war. We can speculate that this includes not just consolidating existing territorial occupation but also seizing the rest of Donetsk region, including Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. The occupation of Donbas and a land corridor to Crimea represent Russian victory. Russia does not have the troop-to-task ratio to achieve anything else. Putin views himself as a transformative leader, a commander-in-chief able in his New Year’s Eve address to lay down the law and use the war in Ukraine to fundamentally reshape Russia. For Putin, ideal victory comes with a Yalta-II summit (‘Grand Bargain’) in which the US and Russia negotiate as Great Powers the fate of Ukraine. Russia is acknowledged as a co-equal Great Power by a dignified foe (the US), while it is able to dictate the fate of Ukraine within its sphere of influence. But might victory for Putin also be understood in terms of his legacy in transforming Russia, with or without victory in Ukraine? Russia’s 2024 presidential election becomes the ritual consecration of Putin’s historic mission and Russia’s destiny, by this reading, not a stumbling block or check on Putin’s power. The notion of a ticking time clock putting Putin under pressure is an illusion: Putin’s ability to manufacture the reality of time by resetting the clock is in a sense the proof of the existence of God (Putin), at least in his mind.
Conclusions
It is clear that the incentives of parties have shifted over the last 11 months and that such shifts can open pathways for war termination through negotiation, though 2023 is likely to still be driven by military logic rather than diplomacy, especially as both sides prepare for offensives. In the balance is the Ukrainian desire for a sustainable war termination (“just peace”) as set against the real risks of Russian military reconstitution and conflict sustainment. Security guarantees in the form of NATO membership may mitigate this risk, but even if such membership became largely symbolic (Ukraine is in effect already a de facto member of the NATO alliance), it would also constitute a strategic defeat for Russia. Ukraine’s wider diplomatic effort centered on “unifying for peace” may also play a role in opening up new negotiation opportunities, for example, through the diplomatic engagement of China. These opportunities are currently missing and may be able to be used to exert indirect influence on involved parties to move closer to a sustainable conflict resolution.
Disclaimer:
This summary reflects the views of the authors (Mark Galeotti, Orysia Lutsevych and Graeme P. Herd) and are not necessarily the official policy of NATO, the United States, Germany, or any other governments.
consensusdecisionmaking posted: ” Reblogged from Alarm Phone. Photo: Alarm Phone Unanswered Questions On the 14th of December, a boat broke apart in the middle of the Channel, leading to the deaths of at least four people. The total number of passengers on board has not been con” Calais Migrant Solidarity
Reblogged from Alarm Phone. Unanswered Questions On the 14th of December, a boat broke apart in the middle of the Channel, leading to the deaths of at least four people. The total number of passengers on board has not been confirmed, nor how many people are missing from the group. Less than two weeks ago […]
2022 was een fantastisch actiejaar! Met meer dan 300 acties, duizenden euro’s aan donaties (waarvoor dank!) en een heleboel media-aandacht. ‘Klimaatklever’ als woord van het jaar en een aantal overwinningen, zoals de motie van de gemeente Amsterdam: een eerste stap om privévluchten te verbieden. Betekent dit dat we nu mogen hopen dat we het ergste gehad hebben? Nee, zeker niet! De uitstoot van broeikasgassen stijgt nog steeds, de natuur gaat in steeds hoger tempo verloren, de zesde massa-uitstervingsgolf is al in gang gezet. Politici staan erbij en kijken ernaar. Of zelfs dat niet: ze staan erbij en gooien nog wat olie op het vuur. Voor 2023 telt daarom maar één ding: MEER ACTIE! En daarvoor zijn jullie nodig, op straat en achter de schermen met jullie moed, liefde en steun!
Doe mee: A12-blokkade, zaterdag 28 januari om 12:00 uur! Op zaterdag 28 januari om 12:00 uur blokkeren we weer de A12, deze keer met nog meer mensen. Want actie werkt, steeds meer media-aandacht, steeds meer steun en steeds meer politici die beginnen te snappen dat we in een noodtoestand verkeren. De klimaat- en ecologische crisis verergeren met de dag, maar toch blijft de overheid olie op het vuur gooien. Wij eisen dat er per direct wordt gestopt met de 17,5 miljard jaarlijkse subsidie aan de fossiele industrie! Wil je meedoen? Stap in de Signal-groep op de evenementenpagina om op de hoogte te blijven.
Is dit jouw eerste burgerlijk ongehoorzame actie? Volg een actietraining zodat je goed voorbereid bent. Een overzicht van alle actietrainingen vind je op de website. Wil je ons aanmoedigen op een manier zonder kans op arrestatie? Kom dan, want ook als je buiten de blokkade bent: je bent van een onschatbare steun.
XR NL gaat door met disruptieve actie Op 1 januari 2023 maakte Extinction Rebellion UK bekend zich voorlopig te richten op een massademonstratie en even geen geweldloze maar disruptieve acties te doen. Natuurlijk krijgen wij nu veel vragen over onze plannen. Laat het duidelijk zijn: wij gaan door met burgerlijke ongehoorzaamheid. In 2023 telt maar één ding: ACTIE! De uitstoot van broeikasgassen stijgt nog steeds en de ecologische- en klimaatcrisis verergeren met de dag. Dus wij pakken door! Met disruptieve acties en campagnes dwingen we de overheid en grote vervuilers om te stoppen met het vernietigen van de Aarde en haar bewoners.
Zaterdag 11 maart: fietsblokkade op de Afsluitdijk Op 11 maart, de zaterdag voor de Provinciale Statenverkiezingen, blokkeren we fietsend de Afsluitdijk. Het afgelopen jaar heeft laten zien dat de ecologische en klimatcrisis geen minuut langer genegeerd kan worden. Klimaatrampen volgen elkaar in hoog tempo op, overal ter wereld zijn planten, dieren en mensen in gevaar. Toch boort, pompt en hamert de fossiele industrie over de hele wereld naar olie, gas en kolen. Dit moet stoppen. Wij eisen dat er een stop komt op nieuwe fossiele projecten!
Om een kans te hebben de verhitting van de planeet te beperken tot 1,5 graad kan er geen nieuw fossiel project meer bij komen. Dat vinden niet alleen wij, maar ook het Internationaal Energie Agentschap en de VN. Stoppen met nieuwe fossiele projecten is dus een no brainer. Maar overheden en grote vervuilers blijven de planeet vernietigen. Bedrijven als de veroordeelde klimaatcrimineel Shell investeren miljarden in nieuwe fossiele projecten. En Nederland en Duitsland willen in de Noordzee naar gas laten boren. Dit mag niet gebeuren! Daarom roepen we iedereen op de fiets te pakken en zich aan te sluiten bij ons protest! Word lid van het Telegram-kanaal om op de hoogte te blijven.
Nieuwe community: XR Leraren Sinds kort hebben wij een nieuwe community: XR Leraren! Met deze community willen we mensen verenigen die verbonden zijn met of werkzaam zijn in het onderwijs. We houden onze eerste online bijeenkomst op 14 januari om 14.00 uur. Wees welkom! Schuif aan in deze Signal-groep of mail naar info@extinctionrebellion.nl. Deel dit met je netwerk en schuif aan als je interesse of ideeën hebt!
Tata Steel moet sluiten! Op woensdag 14 december 2022 hebben wij met tientallen rebellen het kantoor van Vattenfall in Amsterdam bezet! We eisen dat de energiecentrale van Vattenfall in Velsen, die onlosmakelijk verbonden is met Tata Steel, per direct sluit. Dan zal Tata Steel zelf ook moeten sluiten.
Tata en Vattenfall staan in de top van grootste CO2-uitstoters van Nederland, en verantwoordelijk voor zware luchtvervuiling waardoor onder andere een sterk verhoogde kans op longkanker in de regio. De energiecentrale van Vattenfall gebruikt gas uit de hoogovens om energie op te wekken, die Tata weer afneemt. Vattenfall heeft daarmee de macht om Tata te sluiten. Voor medewerkers moet er dan een rechtvaardige overgangsregeling komen.
Klimaatrechtvaardigheid: woningisolatie ‘Ymere ga Isolere!’ Op donderdag 8 december 2022 stonden wij met huurders van Ymere Amsterdam voor hun hoofdkantoor. Ymere is een van de grootste woningcorporaties in Nederland en laat huurders in de kou staan door veel te weinig woningen te isoleren. Veel van hun huurders leven in energiearmoede en wonen in een woning met energielabel E of lager en kunnen het zich niet veroorloven in een warm huis te leven.
Foto credit: Jakob van Vliet Ymere laat zich van zijn slechtste kant zien: reparatieverzoeken worden genegeerd of zeer slecht uitgevoerd, mensen worden afgewimpeld met excuses. Daarnaast zijn door de werkzaamheden van Vattenfall aan het voor heel veel huurders onbetaalbare warmtenet sommige huizen verzakt en zijn er scheuren ontstaan. Daarbij werkt de door de gemeente geplande stadswarmte op basis van biomassa waarvoor bossen worden gekapt. En dat terwijl Amsterdam klimaatneutraal wil worden! Wij eisen woningisolatie en geen sprookjes!
Steun Extinction Rebellion De crisis is NU en de aanpak moet dat ook zijn. Ga mee de straat op, kom online in opstand en wees een rebelse donateur. Doe mee!
Help ons te groeien! Stuur deze nieuwsbrief door naar zoveel mogelijk mensen en vraag ze een (online of live) Welkom bij XR-lezing te volgen. Nieuwe ontvangers: met deze link kun je je inschrijven voor deze nieuwsbrief.
Alle steunbetuigingen doen ons heel goed! Heel veel dank en liefde daarvoor. Wij blijven strijden en houden je op de hoogte!
2022 was a fantastic year of action! With more than 300 actions, thousands of euros in donations (for which thanks!) and a lot of media attention. ‘Klimaatklever’ as word of the year and a number of victories, such as the Amsterdam city council’s motion: a first step to ban private flights. Does this mean we can now hope we’ve had the worst of it? No, certainly not! Greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, nature is being lost at an ever-increasing rate, the sixth wave of mass extinction is already under way. Politicians stand by and watch. Or not even that: they stand by and throw some more oil on the fire. Therefore, only one thing counts for 2023: MORE ACTION! And for that you are needed, on the streets and behind the scenes with your courage, love and support!
Join: A12 blockade, Saturday 28 January at 12 PM! On Saturday the 28th of January at 12PM, we will blockade the A12 once again, this time with even more people. Because action works: with increasing attention from media, more support and more politicians starting to understand that we are in a state of emergency. The climate and ecological crisis worsen by the day, yet the government keeps throwing oil on the fire. We demand an immediate end to the 17.5 billion annual subsidy to the fossil industry! Want to participate? Join the Signal group on the event page to stay informed.
Is this your first civil disobedience action? Follow an action training course so you are well prepared. An overview of all action training courses can be found on the website. Want to cheer us on in a way without risk of arrest? Then come, because even if you are outside the blockade: you are of invaluable support.
XR NL continues disruptive action On 1 January, Extinction Rebellion UK announced it was focusing on a mass demonstration for the time being and not doing non-violent but disruptive action for a while. Naturally, we get a lot of questions about our plans. Let’s be clear: we will continue with civil disobedience. In 2023, only one thing counts: ACTION! Greenhouse gas emissions are still rising and the ecological and climate crisis is worsening by the day. So we take action! With disruptive actions and campaigns, we force the government and big polluters to stop destroying the Earth and its inhabitants.
Saturday 11 March: bicycle blockade on the Afsluitdijk On the 11th of March, the Saturday before the Provincial Council elections, we will block the Afsluitdijk by bicycle. The past year has shown that the climate and ecological crisis cannot be ignored for a minute longer. Climate disasters follow each other in rapid succession, all over the world plants, animals and people are in danger. Yet the fossil fuel industry is drilling, pumping and hammering for oil, gas and coal all over the world. This must stop. We demand a halt to new fossil fuel projects!
To have a chance of limiting the heating of the planet to 1.5 degrees, there can be no more fossil fuel projects. This is the opinion not only of us but also of the International Energy Agency and the UN. So stopping new fossil fuel projects is a no-brainer. But governments and big polluters continue to destroy the planet. Companies like convicted climate criminal Shell invest billions in new fossil fuel projects. And the Netherlands and Germany want to drill for gas in the North Sea. This must not be allowed to happen! That is why we call on everyone to take their bikes and join our protest! Join the Telegram channel to stay informed.
New community: XR Teachers We recently launched a new community: XR Teachers! With this community, we want to unite people connected to or working in education. We will hold our first online meeting on 14 January at 2 pm. Be welcome! Join this Signal group or send an e-mail to info@extinctionrebellion.nl. Please share this with your network and slide in if you have any interest or ideas!
Tata Steel must close down! On Wednesday the 14th of December 2022, dozens of us rebels occupied Vattenfall’s offices in Amsterdam! We demand that Vattenfall’s power plant in Velsen, which is inextricably linked to Tata Steel, closes immediately. Naturally, Tata Steel itself will eventually also have to close down.
Tata and Vattenfall are in the top tier of largest CO2 emitters in the Netherlands and are responsible for heavy air pollution that, among other things, greatly increases the risk of lung cancer in the region. Vattenfall’s power plant uses gas from the blast furnaces to generate energy, which Tata in turn buys. Vattenfall thus has the power to shut down Tata. There must then be a fair transitional arrangement for employees.
Climate justice: home insulation ‘Ymere ga Isolere!’ On Thursday the 8th of December 2022, we stood with tenants of Ymere Amsterdam in front of their headquarters. Ymere is one of the largest housing associations in the Netherlands and is leaving tenants out in the cold by insulating far too few homes. Many of their tenants live in energy poverty, living in homes with energy label E or lower and cannot afford to live in a warm home.
Photo credit: Jakob van Vliet
Ymere is showing its worst side: repair requests are ignored or very poorly executed, and people are rebuffed with excuses. In addition, Vattenfall’s work on the heat grid, which is unaffordable for a lot of tenants, has caused some houses to sag and cracks to appear. In addition, the district heating planned by the municipality works on the basis of biomass for which forests are cut down. And that while Amsterdam wants to become climate neutral! We demand home insulation and no fairy tales!
Support Extinction Rebellion The crisis is NOW and so must the action be. Our rebels volunteer, but campaigning is expensive. That is why we need your contribution! Join us on the streets, be a rebel online and rebel with your wallet.
Help us keep growing! Forward this newsletter to as many people as possible and ask them to attend a Welcome to XR lecture (online or live)! New recipients: you can use this link to subscribe to this newsletter.
All the messages of support are doing us a lot of good! Many thanks and love for that. We will keep fighting and keep you updated!
Sent via ActionNetwork.org. To update your email address, change your name or address, or to stop receiving emails from Extinction Rebellion Netherlands, please click here.
Foto credit: Jakob van Vliet
